GULF MONARCHIES & IMMUNITY TO CHANGE

As the uprising in Bahrain had been crushed last month, and the protests in Oman lost momentum, the six GCC monarchies seem passing the general Arab awakening. In fact, they seem immune to any change that might lead to put in place what Winston Churchill referred to as the "least worst form of government". Ruling families in these six monarchies gained a dose of self-confidence, and pro-democracy forces in the Arab peninsula lost hope. So, what are the characteristics and compositions of these monarchies that make it immune to a democratic change? 

ARAB TYRANTS .. ROBBERS OF TIME

Inspired by an article by Mr. Ahmed Berqawy published by Assafir Newspaper

Let us put aside the scientific definition of time. It is more serious and more dangerous than that. It is our life in that time .. It is our limited time .. our time in the timeline of life .. It is to say, that the biggest robbery ever existed in the history of mankind, is the robbery of our life committed by our Arab tyrants .. They robbed our time, a time that we cannot retrieve.

POST-REVOLUTION AND THE IDENTITY OF THE NATION

Those expecting that Tunisia, and Egypt will transit smoothly and quickly to a democratic system will likely be disappointed. Removing a tyrant is just the first step toward a stable democratic system. Scholars argued that it takes two to three decades for any society to adopt to the practice of democracy. They also argued that social and political fundamentals erected in the early stage of the transition, will play a major role in drawing the phases of this transition. Fundamentals as the reconstruction of certain principles like the identity of the nation, the concept of citizenship, and the concept of state secularism, are essential to be debated at a national level, in order to build a different future.

QANA MASSACRE .. WE NEITHER FORGOT, NOR FORGAVE

On April 18, 1996, Israeli army shelled a UN compound near Qana village, in which around 800 Lebanese civilians took refuge fleeing the Israeli operation of "Grapes of Wrath". The Israeli artillery pounded the compound with M-109A2 155 mm guns, 106 Lebanese civilians died. A UN investigation committee concluded that it is "unlikely" that the Israeli shelling was a technical or procedural error. And a vote in the UN general assembly decided that a $1.7m cost of repairs to be paid to UNIFIL by Israel. Mark that "Cost of repairs" .. Of course, international condemnation yet to be heard. Israel repeated its criminal episode of Qana again in 2006. Those responsible of that massacre are yet to appear on trail.

Today, we commemorate this crime not to remember, but to reassure the whole world that we will never forget .. and we will never forgive ..  

ARAB AWAKENING & THE MIND REVOLUTION

Anyone who takes a glimpse on the events sweeping currently the Arab world, will not be able to miss certain realities; 1. people and youth are trying to jump on the speedy train of the 21st century, while tyrants are clinging to the status quo. 2. People and youth insist to turn the page of the status quo or die trying to, while tyrants are ready to kill their own people to preserve this status quo. 3. People and youth are dreaming of nation building with the principle of citizenship as an umbrella of unity, while tyrants are fueling society diversities, sectarian and otherwise, in order to spread and rule, ignoring the risks and hazards of civil war, or the disintegration of state and society. In general, it is a struggle for forming the future, where people dreaming of it to be bright, tyrants tend to kill to preserve it dark. But if oneself takes more than a glimpse, the reality to unfold is a different story.

EGYPT SHOULD LISTEN TO THE OLD MAN

Born in 1923, Mohammed Hassanien Heikel is 88 years old now as he watched another major shift in the modern history of the Arab world, "the Arab awakening". In his 66-year long career as a journalist and a writer, he covered the first Arab-Israeli war of 1948, and the Egyptian revolution of the "Free officers" in 1952. He accompanied the late Egyptian leader Jamal Abdul Nasser in the 1950s and 1960s, and the Egyptian-led of Arab struggle against the colonial powers of that time. He was a witness of Suez Crisis in 1956, the six days war of 1967, and the Ramadan war of 1973. He was the first to write a book on the Iranian revolution of 1979 (The return of Ayatollah), and he watched with an eagle-eye the rest of the controversial events of the middle east. And between then and now, he earned the "leading Arab journalist" title, and became a highly respected commentator on Arab affairs.

LEBANON WAR .. SO HISTORY WON'T REPEAT ITSELF

In April 13, 1975, the Lebanese civil war broke out. For 15 years on, Lebanese, Palestinians, Syrians, Israelis, Americans, French, and many more, fought on Lebanese soil. In the war of Lebanon, people went mad. Lebanese killed each other not for a reason but of the religious identity of the killer differed from that of the killed .. In the war of Lebanon, all sects and communities committed massacres against each other .. the blood of more than 100 thousands human life had been shed, and mixed with no distinction, with no aim, and with no accomplishment .. The war of Lebanon ended with no victorious side .. It just unfolded lessons, principles, and values, in which catastrophe will be the only outcome, if Lebanese don't comprehend it, maintained it, and embraced it .. Today (April 13, 2011) is the anniversary of the outbreak of the war of Lebanon .. Below is the first episode of a documentary series of 15, aiming to explain the roots and the outcome of the War of Lebanon .. So history won't repeat itself .... 

BAHRAIN .. McCARTHYISM OF THE 21st CENTURY

During the McCarthy era in the United States between late 1940s and through the 1950s, thousands of Americans were, recklessly, accused of being communist or communist sympathizers. In process, they were subjected to aggressive investigations and punishments. As a result, hundreds were falsely imprisoned, and twelve hundreds lost their jobs for unsubstantiated accusations. This was in North America in the middle of the 20th century, and is considered by most of scholars as an era to regret in the American history. And those who had been subjected to such accusations, are mentioned as victims.

FRANCE .. BANNING THE BURQA IS PROBLEMATIC

A controversial bill banning the Burqa-style Islamic veil in public came into force in France on Monday. The enforcement faced low-key challenges, and the French police arrested three women for defying the ban in Paris. According to the bill, the violators of it will be punished by a 150-euros fine. But those who force others to wear the burqa will be subjected to a stiffer punishment which may extends to 12 months in prison and a fine of 30,000 euros. In the bill, the part related to punishing those who force others to wear burqa is morally justified and some even will find it needed in combating women oppression. But banning burqa in public is against civil liberties, might be highly problematic, and above all, might lead to a wide spread of the use of burqa itself among French Muslim minority.

QADDAFI .. ZEUS OF LIBYA

Since he seized power in 1969, Muammer Qaddafi has been a controversial figure. The Late Egyptian leader Jamal Abdul Nasser described him as the heir of Arab nationalism, and I bet the Soul of Nasser regrets it deeply. Saddat, in contrary, saw in Qaddafi a lunatic dreamer and not worthy of any sort of attention, after all, Saddat wanted the spotlight for himself. Reagan called Muammer "the mad dog of Libya", and so on. But all those who tried to describe controversial Qaddafi, failed in comprehending what Qaddafi saw in himself, a GOD ..

A STORY OF A SUCCESSFUL INTERROGATION

Inspired by a poem by Ahmed Mattar.


In the south entrance of an small alley in an Arab capital, an ancient deserted two-storey building stands in the right corner. In the upper floor, in a cold and a wet room. A blindfolded-handcuffed man was brought in by six security officers in civilian-cloths. Two men in black suits were waiting for him. The door, then, was closed, and in the six security waited in the corridor. 


Inside the room, the two men in black stand on front of the blindfolded-handcuffed man, who was seated on the only chair there. One of them opened a file in his hand, and the interrogation began.

TYRANTS & FEBRUARY .. YOU FOOL ME NO MORE

It is another Friday in the Arab world. People took to the streets, blood shed followed, and the Arab tyrants vaguely repeated their promises of reforms. Some of my European friends argued: Why not giving them a second chance. After all, it is safer to transit toward democracy without violence or chaos. .. Well .. History itself argued otherwise. As well as, ironically, the month of February.  

IRAN .. AWAITING THE BLUE REVOLUTION

Many saw a resemblance between the popular uprising that led to the fall of Ben Ali in Tunisia, and the fall of Berlin wall in 1989. And the spread of uprisings across the Arab world added more weight to the resemblance. Nevertheless, the resemblance between events of the current Arab awakening and events from the cold war era doesn't end with the Berlin wall. The Saudi decision to send troops to Bahrain last month is, more or less, similar to the entry of the soviet troops into Hungary in November 1956. Both sent their troops to quell a legitimate popular uprising, and both blamed a foreign "evil" agenda for orchestrating the uprising. 

CRISIS GROUP: THE BAHRAIN REVOLT

The International Crisis Group issued on April 6, its report regarding the Bahrain revolt. The report dismissed the claims that the popular uprising in Bahrain was a tantamount to an Iranian style as it is claimed, by the Saudis, that it would lead to a Shiite takeover. The report stressed that the Saudi military intervention in Bahrain made any peaceful solution for Bahrain's crisis "immensely" more difficult, and the regional context "significantly" tenser.

SAUDI ARABIA: COMBATING BLACK MAGIC

I read today in The Angry Arab News Service administrated by Dr. As'ad Abukhalil that in Saudi Arabia, 

UNDESTANDING QADDAFI'S GREEN BOOK

In his quest for glory, Muammer El Qaddafi published, in 1975, his "Green book". Influenced by the ideological struggle in the cold war era, he claimed that the book contains within its 110 pages the "Third ideology", after capitalism and communism. According to Qaddafi, to solve the problems of the world, oneself should study and understand the "Third ideology". Qaddafi ordered the book to be taught at school, and, in process, Libyan students were forced to spend two hours a week studying the book.

YEMEN .. PREVENTING SEPARATION

By the Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies 

The popular revolution in Yemen has established several features that differ from the movements that have emerged in the Yemeni arena over the past few years. Since the onset of the peaceful protests that swept across Yemen, Yemenis united behind the "topple the regime" slogan despite their different causes and affiliations.This revolutionary situation has created a new two-sided formula in the Yemeni arena.

WAITING FOR THE BARBARIANS

Uprisings in the Arab world erupt. 

Tyrants used all kind of scarecrows to convince people to accept the status quo, stay home, or face chaos. 

This reminded me of the scarecrow in Constantine Cavafy's (1864-1933) masterpiece "Waiting for the barbarians".

CONSPIRACY THEORY

"There is no such thing called a Conspiracy theory. There are conspiracies and it is rooted deep in history in an extent that no one can deny", said president Assad of Syria while addressing the Syrian parliament on March 30. Then, backing himself with this definition, he went on, for the rest of the speech, portraying the unrest erupted in Syria as a new episode of such conspiracy. But, if only logic can function with disregard of history, scholars will, unanimously, dismiss Assad's claims and might even call it "absurd". But, in contrary, it drew a heated debate between scholars in the Arab world.   

BAHRAIN: DEMOGRAPHIC ENGINEERING

Facts on the Ground: A Reliable Estimate of Bahrain's Sunni-Shi'i Balance, and Evidence of Demographic Engineering.

By Justin Gengler

The last time the Government of Bahrain reported official demographic statistics on its Sunni and Shi'i communities was in its very first census in 1941, which put the percentage of Shi'a at 53% of the island's population. (See Qubain 1955, who tells that the census was taken "primarily for food control purposes.") In the intervening 70 years, speculation about Bahrain's evolving Sunni-Shi'i balance has become both a local flash-point and a source of frustration for those attempting to study the country.

ASSESSMENT: THE BAHRAIN SITUATION

The dilemma in Bahrain reached a deadlock, with the Saudi (Peninsula Shield) military intervention complicated the situation there, by inviting other regional powers to follow the same course. The Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies. issued an assessment report of the situation and the possible solutions.

BAHRAIN: A DIRTY JOB UNDER A SAUDI UMBRELLA

On March 14, under a controversial interpreting of the "Peninsula Shield" treaty between the six gulf countries, Saudi troops entered Bahrain to help the Royal family in quelling a month-long popular uprising demanding a constitutional monarchy. The uprising was crushed, hundreds between dead or injured, opposition leaders along with more than 300 activists were detained or declared missing, and a campaign of systemic suppression against the Shiite community was unleashed. Many in Bahrain, the Arab world, and globally, argued that the Saudi intervention is more of a political nature than security, given in hand that Bahrain's security apparatus and army are up to the task. It is international condemnation what the royal family worried about, and as they are still going on in their dirty job, real condemnation never really heard, with the suspicion of a Saudi "Shuush" preventing it.

BAHRAIN .. GALLOWAY SAID IT ALL

Since Saudi led "Peninsula shield" troops entered Bahrain to quell a popular uprising, world capitals, and media likewise, were very sensitive in expressing their "dis-like" of such move, and the propaganda of those who supported the Saudi invasion was loud and senseless. Maybe be it takes a "rude-gentleman" to say it all. In his way of course.  

GOLDSTONE .. AN "OOPS" WHICH IS BEING EXAGGERATED

Richard Goldstone, the South African judge, who chaired the fact-finding mission appointed by the U.N. Human Rights Council to investigate on the claims that war crimes had been committed during the Israeli war against Gaza between 2008 and 2009. The findings which produced what has come to be known as the Goldstone Report. The report stated that there is evidence of "potential war crimes" and "possibly crimes against humanity" by both Israel and Hamas. This finding unleashed back then, the wrath of Israel. Most of this wrath had been directed at the chairman of the mission, Goldstone himself.


In April's fool day, The Washington post published a column  written by the Judge himself titled "Reconsidering the Goldstone report on Israel and war crimes". His reconsideration, as he mentioned in his column, was based on:

We'll Give you Libya, and We'll take Bahrain

By Pepe Escobar, published by Asia Times online

You invade Bahrain. We take out Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. This, in short, is the essence of a deal struck between the Barack Obama administration and the House of Saud. Two diplomatic sources at the United Nations independently confirmed that Washington, via Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, gave the go-ahead for Saudi Arabia to invade Bahrain and crush the pro-democracy movement in their neighbor in exchange for a "yes" vote by the Arab League for a no-fly zone over Libya - the main rationale that led to United Nations Security Council resolution 1973.

THE SHIITE QUESTION

Inspired by the uprising that led to the fall of the authoritarian regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, Bahrainis rallied (Feb 14) in the streets of Manama. They first faced a brutal crackdown by the regime's security apparatus that caused tens of casualties between dead and injured, before they had been allowed to camp in, and around the Pearl Square at the heart of the capital. They announced their demand of a constitutional monarchy. Foreign Media rushed to the tiny Kingdom to cover another Arab uprising. Headlines rushed as well to the screens and pages of the media around the world, as it did in the case of Tunisia and Egypt, except it was phrased differently. In Egypt and Tunisia, and later in Libya, Algeria, Morocco, and even Yemen, most of the headlines are phrased as "popular uprising" or so. While in Bahrain, it was phrased "Shiite uprising against the Sunni ruling family".

EGYPTIAN MEDIA .. OLD HABITS DIE HARD

Egypt's ruling military council pledged "repeatedly", that they won't seek staying in power. The council announced that they will patronage the democratic transformation. And, it is very hard for oneself to argue otherwise, except in regards of the Egyptian media. Or maybe it is the Egyptian media old habits.

YOUTUBE .. REVOLUTION'S MEDIA TYCOON

Arab tyrants, unanimously, while watching the Arab-awakening wave reached their shores, they blamed, or still blaming, the media for inciting it. And instead of answering the grievances of their people, they decided to unleash their absurd media counter-attack. They banned foreign media inside and closed their offices, and went, ironically, to advertise their state "so-called" TVs as the only reliable source of the truth. But foreign media went on covering as they were inside, thanks of course to social networks. Tyrants lost the media war.